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Abandoning The Euro Would Have High Cost, Says S&P Report
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Credit Union (AXcess News) New York - According to a recent report by Standard & Poor's, abandoning the Euro would have high costs for some sovereigns and adversly affect their credit ratings. If they favored going back to national currenciesit could lower their credit ratings two to four notches, the U.S. rating agency said.
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Merchant Credit Guide Co The report entitled "Breaking Up Is Hard To Do: Rating Implications Of EU States Abandoning The Euro" found that lower-rated EMU sovereigns with weaker fiscal profiles would diminish their creditworthiness in the unlikely event that they left Economic Monetary Union.
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Apply Online For Credit Card However,sovereigns with relatively stronger external and fiscal profiles, such as the Republic of France and the Federal Republic of Germany (both rated AAA/Stable/A-1+), would not suffer from a ratings perspective, and might even increase their chances of remaining 'AAA'. Nevertheless, even the Kingdom of Spain (AAA/Stable/A-1+), which has a low debt ratio and a budget in balance, could face a significant drop in its sovereign credit rating if it were to abandon the euro. This is due to Spain's weak external position, which would become a more constraining factor outside the Eurozone, the report states.
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By Card Credit Debt Debt Guide "Greece would inflict the most damage on itself if it were to leave EMU, and its rating could fall back by four notches to the brink of non-investment grade," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Moritz Kraemer, author of the report. "The ratings on Italy, Portugal, and Spain could fall by between two to three notches."
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Credit Repair The study, based on a quantitative approach, estimates mechanically the first-round effects of a sudden euro exit by a sovereign and assumes that the exchange rates of the new national currencies would move toward levels that would reproduce the average real exchange rate and competitiveness in the pre-EMU period. The study did not take into account the possible impact on political and financial stability in the seceding countries or knock-on effects on third countries.
Active Credit Credit Guide "The results are clear: if safeguarding a sovereign's credit rating is an important objective, leaving EMU behind is a bad idea for the lower rated sovereigns," said Mr. Kraemer. "The higher the stock of public debt, external imbalances, and real appreciation since the early 1990s, the more adverse the rating impact is likely to be if a country drops out."
Credit Score Although Standard & Poor's does not expect any EMU exits over 10 years, the report points out that the longer-term situation could become more clouded if the conditions for sustainable fiscal policies and a mobile/flexible labor market for a functioning monetary union are not fulfilled. "If large and relatively stronger sovereigns, such as France and Germany, were to leave, highly-rated sovereigns would probably depart as well, trying to link up with a hard-core EMU centered on France and Germany, or revert to national currencies", said Mr. Kraemer. "We do not think EMU implosion is likely, particularly given the potential consequences for member states suggested by our analysis. However, EMU secessions are conceivable in the very long term if public finances are not put on an even keel."
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